Hyperinflation with Currency Substitution: Introducing an Indexed Currency

Currency substitution (CS) and financial adaptation are in general believed to increase the equilibrium rate of inflation. This result derives from a setup in which the government finances a certain amount of real resources through money printing and where CS reduces the base of the inflation tax. This paper shows this intuition wrong for those situations where the hyperinflation is expectations-driven. Incorporating CS in an Obstfeld-Rogoff (1983) framework I show reduces the inflation rates along the hyperinflationary equilibrium. The intuition is simple: if agents have an easy way of substituting away from domestic currency then the required inflation rates to sustain a path where real balances disappears is necessarily lower. The implications of the model are then tested empirically.

Culture and social resistance to reform: a theory about the endogeneity of public beliefs with an application to the case of Argentina

This paper attempts to understand the factors that explain the degree of support or criticism that a reform process may be subject to. Understanding these determinants is critical, in turn, to assess the feasibility and sustainability of those reforms. In particular, we want to assess what are the elements that create societal consensus for reform and which are the main factors that turn public opinion against it. In the case of Argentina, for example, such dynamics are critical to understand how public opinion imposed constraints on government behavior, affected macroeconomic performance, and ultimately, determined the chance of success of reforms.

Haircuts

Sovereign Debt, Debt Crises, Debt Restructuring, Investor Losses

Macroeconomic Coordination and Monetary Unions in a N-country World: Do all Roads Lead to Rome?

In Europe, twelve countries have joined a currency union but four have stayed out. The EU enlargement process implies a large set of potential EMU entrants. In Latin America, two countries have recently dollarized and regional currencies have also been a recurring theme. We develop a theoretical model in which countries are exposed to real and monetary shocks of both a systemic and individual nature. The model suggests when countries should float, form a CU or fix to an anchor as a function of their sensitivity to systemic shocks and the size of individual shocks. In an empirical analysis we consider a set of countries in Latin America. We find that what is beneficial for a given country depends on the actions of others. Integration may then be path dependent, and all roads may not lead to Rome.

An Estimation of CPI Biases in Argentina 1985-2005, and its Implications on Real Income Growth and Income Distribution

We use the shifts in Engel curves estimated from household surveys to estimate CPI biases in Argentina between 1985 and 2005. We find that real earning levels increased during this period between 4.3 and 5.7% faster per year than previously estimated. More surprisingly, relative to conventional wisdom, that income distribution has improved throughout this period.

Toolkit for the analysis of debt problems

The idea of this chapter is to provide a number of tools that may allow an independent observer to assess the likelihood of default, to provide the clues for an evaluation of likely restructuring scenarios and to be able to estimate possible financial and real implications of such an event. We divide our Toolkit into seven exercises. In all cases our idea is to provide the needed elements so that the researcher applies directly the Toolkit to the country of analysis.Para cualquier uso del contenido del presente documento debe ponerse en contacto con el autor